Sanderson M. Smith

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SIMPSON'S PARADOX: A SIMPLE EXAMPLE

One should be cautious with statistical data when two or more groups are combined to form a single group. This is especially true when percentages are involved.

Consider two individuals, A and B. The following table displays their respective success ratios for both halves of a given year.

SUCCESSES

ATTEMPTS

% SUCCESSES

SUCCESSES

ATTEMPTS

% SUCCESSES

A: First Half

80

100

80%

B: First Half

78

100

78%

A: Second Half

20

40

50%

B: Second Half

2

5

40%

As the table clearly indicates, A's percentage of successes was greater than B's for both the first half and the second half of the year.

Does it follow that A's percentage of successes was greater than B's for the whole year?

Here are the combined totals....

SUCCESSES

ATTEMPTS

% SUCCESSES

A: Total for year

100

140

71.4%

B: Total for year

80

105

76.2%

Here are some related algebraic thoughts:

If a/b > c/d and e/f > g/h, then it is true that a/b + e/f > c/d + g/h.

a/b + c/d is not equal to (a+c)/(b+d).

a/b + c/d is equal to (ad + bc)/(bd).

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